Conventional wisdom holds that a negotiated end to the Ukraine war is neither possible nor desirable. This belief is false.
It is also extremely dangerous for Ukraine’s future. The war is not trending toward a stable stalemate, but toward Ukraine’s eventual collapse. Russia has corrected many of the problems that plagued its forces during the first year of fighting and adopted an attrition strategy that is gradually exhausting Ukraine’s forces, draining American military stocks, and sapping the West’s political resolve. Sanctions have not crippled Russia’s war effort, and the West cannot fix Ukraine’s acute manpower problems absent direct intervention in the war. Ukraine’s best hope lies in a negotiated settlement that protects its security, minimizes the risks of renewed attacks or escalation, and promotes broader stability in Europe and the world.
Russia has consistently signaled that they have no intention of accepting even the current frontline as a negotiating point, as far as recently passed Russian laws are concerned, large areas of currently Ukraininan controlled territory like the city of Kerson are part of the Russian Federation and any agreement that gave them up would be illegal under Russian law.
Moreover, given how well appeasement worked for them in 2014, there is little public support for such a strategy in Ukraine, even if Russia’s stated core goal wasn’t to prevent the possibility of Ukraine joining any defensive agreement that would make a further invasion difficult.
If Russia comes to the negotiating table, it will either be because a large scale collapse is inevitable on either side, or because they’ve run out of North Korean shells at a time where their opponent is gaining access to increasingly more modern weapon systems. The Soviet Stockpile is massive, but you can only empty it once.