Other accounts:

@[email protected]

All of my comments are licensed under the following license

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/deed.en

  • 6 Posts
  • 51 Comments
Joined 11 months ago
cake
Cake day: August 15th, 2023

help-circle

  • Happy cakeday. And yeah deescalation requires both parties to open to de-arm not only one of them.

    Honestly though the best case scenario of how this all ends doesn’t really look great to me.

    Either Russia loses the war, the government destabilizes, a power vacuum is formed which causes a power shift in a way likely to lead to more aggressive action in the future.

    Or Russia wins the war, eyes other countries after it settles into Ukraine, NATO/US need to respond or else it sends the wrong message to other countries allied with them, and we head for WW3

    Edit: There is also the idea of a stalemate and this just becomes a continuous war that doesn’t really end, but honestly I can’t see that being stable long term.

    Anti Commercial-AI license (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
















  • I think that in the long term that there is one thing going for the truth: It is more coherent and more predictive of what is to come next.

    If a country does a campaign that tries to fabricate a story from scratch if they aren’t very careful there will be some form of incoherence eventually if there is any slip up. That’s why its always easier to just frame the truth in positive or negative lights instead because it removes the need to try and create coherent stories.

    And yes I know that there are people that believe incoherent truths about the world but that is mainly because it doesn’t actually affect most of the actions that they take on a day to day basis so they don’t have an actual incentive to improve their understanding of the world. If they need to make decisions based on that information they will make bad decisions until their understanding of the world has changed or they are out competed by people with more accurate beliefs.

    T.L.D.R.

    Lies take consistent effort to keep straight and eventually they’ll fuck up, Spin is easier and more effective for changing values, and people tend to have more accurate beliefs if they are actually useful to have them.

    Edit: grammar

    Anti Commercial-AI license (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)