What is a certainty was that a dozen+ candidates were murdered, but there weren’t any attempts of her or her family.

This means precisely nothing, as explained by the fallacy mentioned before.

It doesn’t make it untrue or very unlikely, though

But you called it ‘probably’ though, which is on the complete other end of the spectrum from ‘very unlikely’… (aside from it being very unlikely to me, if all I have to go on is unrelated events, someone not being dead, and nothing else)