Basically. Trump’s election signals the end of robust support for Ukraine (if it can even be called that). So Putin is absolutely charged right now and 1/3 could be the best deal Ukraine is going to get. It’s a travesty, but there it is.
I just hope that Putin takes the cue and ends his ridiculous imperialistic drive. His early bloodless annexation of Crimea clearly encouraged broader action, but this war has been an expensive flop for him and I can’t really see him coming back from it to try for more. Unless there is some other neighbor who’s outlying 1/3 he would like to pay a very dear price for.
More likely his prize is concessions on NATO expansion.
That’s true, I am not deeply educated there. Any info you would impart on the topic? Does Russia have some perpetual hardon for controlling Ukraine which will never go down?
The modern Russian government is essentially claiming the territory of the Soviet Union. The reason they started their invasion now is because it was the last chance before Ukraine would become a EU and NATO candidate. If Ukraine falls, Russia will rearm and try pull the exact same “little green men” strategy in the Baltic states, Georgia and Moldova next.
I specifically mentioned the “little green men” because it was Russia’s way to funnel an army into an independent country while claiming that they are just part of a local militia.
It’s not a direct attack and worked out pretty much perfectly in 2014. It would absolutely be a way to continue the conflict, even within NATO countries. Though they need to create a rift within the population first to make such an uprising believable.
Moldova is already at this stage and the leaked plans from the start of the war actually had Transnistria next up on their list.
That seemed like a good task for AI so here’s what got back:
The former USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) included 15 republics, many of which became independent countries after its dissolution in 1991. Here’s a list of former Soviet states that are not NATO members or actively applying for NATO membership (as of now):
1. Belarus
• A close ally of Russia, with strong political, military, and economic ties to Moscow.
• No indications of pursuing NATO membership.
2. Moldova
• Officially neutral according to its constitution.
• While there is some public debate about closer ties with NATO, it has not formally applied for membership.
3. Armenia
• Member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
• While cooperating with NATO on some levels, it is not pursuing membership.
4. Azerbaijan
• Maintains a policy of balanced diplomacy between Russia, NATO, and other powers.
• No NATO membership aspirations have been officially declared.
5. Uzbekistan
• Pursues a policy of neutrality.
• Not a member or applicant of NATO.
6. Turkmenistan
• Officially neutral (recognized by the UN in 1995).
• No NATO ties or aspirations.
7. Tajikistan
• Member of the CSTO, closely aligned with Russia.
• Not pursuing NATO membership.
8. Kyrgyzstan
• Also a member of the CSTO.
• No active NATO membership aspirations.
These countries generally maintain neutrality or align more closely with Russia and its sphere of influence, either through treaties like the CSTO or their foreign policies. Let me know if you’d like more specific information about any of them!
Basically. Trump’s election signals the end of robust support for Ukraine (if it can even be called that). So Putin is absolutely charged right now and 1/3 could be the best deal Ukraine is going to get. It’s a travesty, but there it is.
I just hope that Putin takes the cue and ends his ridiculous imperialistic drive. His early bloodless annexation of Crimea clearly encouraged broader action, but this war has been an expensive flop for him and I can’t really see him coming back from it to try for more. Unless there is some other neighbor who’s outlying 1/3 he would like to pay a very dear price for.
More likely his prize is concessions on NATO expansion.
Then you clearly haven’t studied Russian history and policy vis a vis Ukraine
That’s true, I am not deeply educated there. Any info you would impart on the topic? Does Russia have some perpetual hardon for controlling Ukraine which will never go down?
The modern Russian government is essentially claiming the territory of the Soviet Union. The reason they started their invasion now is because it was the last chance before Ukraine would become a EU and NATO candidate. If Ukraine falls, Russia will rearm and try pull the exact same “little green men” strategy in the Baltic states, Georgia and Moldova next.
The Baltics are NATO members. No matter what they do, it won’t be “the same strategy.”
I specifically mentioned the “little green men” because it was Russia’s way to funnel an army into an independent country while claiming that they are just part of a local militia.
It’s not a direct attack and worked out pretty much perfectly in 2014. It would absolutely be a way to continue the conflict, even within NATO countries. Though they need to create a rift within the population first to make such an uprising believable.
Moldova is already at this stage and the leaked plans from the start of the war actually had Transnistria next up on their list.
shall i start a list of former members of the Soviet Union where there’s no conflict regarding the NATO expansion?
That seemed like a good task for AI so here’s what got back:
1. Belarus
• A close ally of Russia, with strong political, military, and economic ties to Moscow.
• No indications of pursuing NATO membership.
2. Moldova
• Officially neutral according to its constitution.
• While there is some public debate about closer ties with NATO, it has not formally applied for membership.
3. Armenia
• Member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
• While cooperating with NATO on some levels, it is not pursuing membership.
4. Azerbaijan
• Maintains a policy of balanced diplomacy between Russia, NATO, and other powers.
• No NATO membership aspirations have been officially declared.
5. Uzbekistan
• Pursues a policy of neutrality.
• Not a member or applicant of NATO.
6. Turkmenistan
• Officially neutral (recognized by the UN in 1995).
• No NATO ties or aspirations.
7. Tajikistan
• Member of the CSTO, closely aligned with Russia.
• Not pursuing NATO membership.
8. Kyrgyzstan
• Also a member of the CSTO.
• No active NATO membership aspirations.
These countries generally maintain neutrality or align more closely with Russia and its sphere of influence, either through treaties like the CSTO or their foreign policies. Let me know if you’d like more specific information about any of them!
And while we’re at it, here are the NATO members or aspirants:
Here’s a breakdown of the former USSR states that are now NATO members or are actively considering NATO membership:
Former USSR States That Are NATO Members
These countries joined NATO after gaining independence from the Soviet Union:
1. Estonia
• Joined NATO: 2004
• Strong NATO ally with significant defense investments.
2. Latvia
• Joined NATO: 2004
• Works closely with NATO on Baltic security.
3. Lithuania
• Joined NATO: 2004
• Actively contributes to NATO missions.
4. Poland
• Although not a USSR republic, it was part of the Warsaw Pact (Soviet-aligned).
• Joined NATO: 1999.
Former USSR States Considering or Applying for NATO Membership
1. Ukraine
• Officially applied for NATO membership in 2022.
• Has intensified cooperation with NATO since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
2. Georgia
• Has declared aspirations to join NATO since 2008.
• NATO has an ongoing partnership with Georgia, but membership has been delayed due to territorial disputes (Abkhazia and South Ossetia).
3. Moldova (Debate, but no formal application)
• While officially neutral, there are internal discussions about strengthening ties with NATO due to regional threats.
• No formal application has been made yet.
Key Context
• NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia remains controversial, partly due to ongoing conflicts with Russia and territorial disputes.
• Other former USSR states, like Belarus and the Central Asian countries, are either neutral or aligned with Russia.
Let me know if you’d like a deeper dive into any of these countries!