My guess: unresolved national tensions and probable separatism seeds + weakness of the state in the last year (Prigo’s march, Krokus, buryatian demonstrations against jailing a known activist) + 24\7 stream of hatred on TV + jealousy of more autonomous and supported regions. That’s not like there wasn’t any violence here, but recently it became more apparent with Mahachkala’s airport being crowded by a mob of locals to ‘meet’ people who arrived from Israel. This place becomes more dangerous and as you pointed out Moskow would likely ignore it. And it’s too random for a false flag, I believe.
Last thing I remember yesterday many condemned Israel for announcing it’s land development program that is gossiped as planned on occupied territories. Today there were news of a shitbag minister who voiced a plan to take the West Bank under a military rule (and to convert it into profits?), and I don’t see many support to him there as well. Would it be too cynical to ask wtf these settlers would be doing there?